Sunday, June 18, 2006

The Sunday Times Loves This Blog (kinda)

I was shocked, nay verily stunned, so I was, when I opened my Sunday Times (Ireland) Homes (Section 6), (ST(I)H(S6) and quickly leafed through the property porn to ‘The Market’ section, the only part worth reading. There in ink, not flickering pixels, but good old ink was a reference to this ever so humble blog. Niall Toner, the author and a man who has recently risen highly in my estimation (this morning) wrote these hallowed words in relation to this blog.

It makes for an entertaining and occasionally informative look at the market’

Alas Niall also made reference to tents and peeing and armchairs where amateur economists may be found lounging, no doubt resting after all that peeing. And lamentably moan and rant also got a look in. But hey, ain’t no such thing as bad publicity, so thanks Niall for the name check. This particular bear promises not to maul those sheep who have recently noticed a certain, aah….. cognitive dissonance, when pondering the current property mania.


But enough of blogs. Niall makes reference in his section to the fall in clearance rates at last week’s auctions. ‘Fewer than one in four houses put under the hammer actually sold last week’. At one Linsey sales room last Tuesday, nobody at all turned up to bid on three properties on offer’. That’s a pretty good definition of the sound one hand clapping makes for all you Buddhists out there. Has the selling season come to an unseasonably early end? Is the lure of Paraguay v Serbia and Montenegro on the telly stronger than the urge to buy the most expensive real estate on Earth? Have the boys in Bonn in the Bundesbank, put the willies up the buying public? Trees don’t grow to the sky I suppose, but if we are seeing a top, will the lure of 2% net yields be enough to keep investors interest in the market?

What am I talking about? There are no investors in the Irish market. There are speculators who have bet the house (literally in many cases, through equity release on their principle residence) on capital escalation; investors became extinct years ago. What happens next? well look no further than Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida, The Spanish Costas, New England, or indeed Japan in 1990 for clues.

7 comments:

planetpotato said...

We should develop some sort of indicator to confidence levels and prices. I'm sure if you guaged press coverage positive or negative versus house prices you'd get a correlation...

Duplex said...

Nice idea planetpotato, I might do somthing with Google Trends along those lines,

Duplex

Anonymous said...

For anyone interested in reading about the housing market in the US, mentioned in the orignal post;



http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0618marketbottom0618.html

Anonymous said...

Interesting, but isnt there a provision in Irish law that family homes (principal residence) cannot be seized?
I'm sure this was a hangover from the Absentee Landlord/ Gaelic League times and was codified in the constitution.
But I only got a B in history...so I might be wrong.

Duplex said...

It may be the case that the Constitution contains some provision regarding security of tenure, making it more difficult for the banks to obtain vacant possession in the event of foreclosure. But if we are faced with a situation where repossessions sore the banks could still obtain title and allow the former owners remain in occupation paying whatever the market rent is for the property.

Duplex

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work,Bubble will burst in next 2or3 year,the recent acceleration is the last desperate surge of irrational exuberance.

Duplex said...

Thanks Anon, I agree that we are in the manic final stage.

Duplex