"To combat the depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection of production, we want to create further misdirection - a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end." - Friedrich Hayek 1933
Enough said Fred.
Imagine if Hayek was alive today; looking for a concrete (or timber framed) example to support his thesis that curing a debt binge with more debt was a bad idea. Where oh where would he find a debt engrossed 'guinea pig' to observe,..... no don't tell me... its on the tip of my tongue.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
The rating agency Fitch said it now has five countries on watch for
"macro-prudential stress", up from two last year, using a set of indicators. A
mixed bag, they comprise Iceland, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Russia and,
surprisingly, Ireland, where the ratio of private credit to GDP has reached
190pc, the world's highest. The denouement for Ireland may not be pretty, since
it gave up control of monetary policy when it joined the euro.
Richard Fox, the author of the Fitch report, said: "We're still in a global upswing but this lending cycle is already starting to turn in some countries. Credit growth has
been zooming across the whole of Eastern Europe and that has tended to be a
precursor to banking troubles."